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Mounting concerns have emerged over the possibility of armed conflict between East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive language has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a intense war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it without sea access.

In 1998, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and suggested the intention to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Statements

Despite ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a approach of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities warned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Region

There have been little evidence of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of human resources department of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an conversation that the army was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle occurred, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, causing war in 1998.

Though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a announcement that the war was concluded – a action that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.