A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
